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Recruiting Rankings: Do They Really Matter?

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What does Aaron Donald, Aaron Rodgers, and Josh Jacobs all have in common, besides being big-time playmakers in the NFL? 

Clearly, it isn’t their position, the team they belong to, or the college they attended. Summertime doesn’t bring about many gifts in the world of collegiate sports, but it does allow us to concentrate on one crucial aspect: recruiting. As the 2023 class is set to wrap up the verbal commitment phase of this recruitment season, a lot of 4 and 5 stars are still on the board. While most people consider the number of stars as a direct correlation to the likelihood of future success in college and the NFL, this isn’t always accurate. In fact, there are quite a few 3-star recruits that end up making the biggest impact on the field. 

So, what do these three elite NFL players have in common? 

They were all labeled as 3-star talent out of high school. 

Prominent programs in the last decade, like Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia, tend to have an advantage when landing a 5-star prospect. Yet some of their biggest playmakers didn’t begin their collegiate careers in the spotlight. Along with Alabama’s Josh Jacobs, both Eddie Jackson and Mac Jones were 3-stars, as was Ohio State’s Michael Thomas and Malik Hooker. Georgia’s Jordan Davis was drafted 13th overall by the Philadelphia Eagles in this year’s draft and was – you guessed it – a 3-star recruit. 

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But the success of these players must be due to the coaching staff, or the top-of-the-line facilities found at these universities, right? 

Not exactly, although those things can certainly aid in a player’s progress. There are multiple examples of underestimated talent throughout the NCAA and the NFL. The 2021 College Football All-America first-team selections consisted of 26 players, 12 of which had a 4-star or higher ranking coming out of high school. 54% of the first-team selections consisted of players that were classified as a 3-star or lower, representing each of the Power 5 conferences, as well as a nod to the SunBelt, the AAC, and the Mountain West.

Prospects with 3-stars or less are often under-appreciated by fans during the recruitment process, but some of the most exciting and dynamic players in the history of the sport fall into this category. Texas A & M’s Johnny Manziel, hailed by some as the best player in SEC history, is probably the most (in)famous example of an underrated college recruit. Whether you hated him or loved him (I leaned towards the former), he had a great college career. Although not every 3-star can make such a big impression, quite a few leave their mark before heading to the NFL.  

Hey Tennessee fans, remember Cam Sutton? 

Every football program has them, but not every fan realizes what an impact they make on the game. So, for the fans out there watching and waiting on the 5-star talent, focus your attention elsewhere. A 3-star can be your most valuable asset.  

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